Freight forwarder DSV is not expecting the US decision to stop the de minimis exemption for Chinese shipments to result in major changes to the e-commerce market out of Asia.

Speaking following the announcement of its full-year results, DSV chief executive Jens Lund explained that the company had “very limited volumes” from the likes of online retail platforms Temu and Shein but offered his thoughts on the future of the market following de minimis rule changes in the US.

He believed the platforms would be able to maintain their cost advantage over retailers despite having to pay import duties in the future.

“It is a market where a producer that produces a certain commodity can present this commodity on a marketplace that makes it visible to the buyer in another country. And then they cut out the local commodity buyer in China, they cut the wholesale, the retailer, they cut out all these parts.”

He added: “Let’s say you want to buy a t-shirt and it normally costs $50 but you can perhaps buy it for $10 [from an online retailer] and then you can put some duty on it and it costs $15 – then if the consumer still looks at it they will still save $35. That is the dynamic that drives the e-commerce part.”

He added that there is also the possibility that manufacturers will move out of China to other jurisdictions where they can still benefit from the exemption.

He explained that the company’s largest ocean freight origin for goods heading to the US is now Vietnam, so the change is possible.

“The same will happen with this thing, it will find a new norm and will continue,” he said.

While the forwarder only processes a small amount of e-commerce from the Chinese portals, any negative changes to volumes are still likely to have an impact on the wider air cargo market and therefore DSV. For instance, a reduction in demand could open up capacity and bring down rates.

Others have echoed a similar sentiment to DSV’s Lund. Swissport’s vice president for e-commerce Nikolia Schaffner said the average value of an e-commerce package is between $15 and $18 meaning even a tax of 20% is absorbable.

Meanwhile, Xeneta chief airfreight officer Niall van de Wouw said that even with the need to pay duties, goods are still likely to be cheaper than buying them from retail stores.

“China e-commerce was not set up to take advantage of de minimis loopholes – it has taken advantage of consumer demand for cheap, fast goods,” he said.

Lund’s comments come after the US removed the de minimis exemption for goods originating in China as part of a wider decision to implement tariffs of 10% on goods from the country.

Meanwhile, Lund also gave an update on DSV’s acquisition of DB Schenker from Deutsche Bahn.

He said the company had secured 33 out of the 36 regulatory approvals required, with the US and European Commission still to provide its decision.

“We are in a very good dialogue and have frequent virtual and physical meetings in order to cater for all the questions they have,” he said.

“They do not get rewarded to do things fast, they get rewarded to avoid making mistakes so they have many questions and we of course answer them.”

He said the company was still targeting the second quarter to gain the remaining approvals.